With a sharp fall in interest rates in recent months, life for savers has become much tougher. Bank fixed deposits are offering as low as 3.5-5.5% returns for 6-12-month period and liquid schemes of mutual funds just a little higher at 4-6%. In other words, holding cash or short-term deposits has started to pinch.
The market situation encourages even risk-averse investors to step up their risk appetite marginally in order to take advantage of higher returns. One such opportunity where the market is offering an attractive risk premium for investments is that of “income funds” offered by mutual funds.
Many investors who have significant investible surpluses appear not to be convinced of the opportunity to invest in income funds. Most investors who do not relate to volatility in debt markets are quite comfortable with the same in equities.
Investors in income funds must be prepared to stay invested for a minimum period of six months, if not a year, and evaluate the returns on their investments for the holding period and not on a day-to-day basis. In fact, according to Crisil Composite Bond Fund index, those who invested in these funds earned handsome returns (please note that past performance is not indicative of future returns).
The Crisil benchmark for the period ending April 29, 2009 went up by 20.1% p.a. in six months and 10.4% p.a. in 12 months (Source: mutualfundsindia.com). Investors need to appreciate that these returns were achieved not in a straight line, but despite a significant volatility in the benchmark 10-year government bond yields.
Another important point to consider here is that like in any volatile asset class, the returns in income or bond funds vary considerably from fund to fund. It is here that the expertise of the fund managers is tested. This brings us to understanding an important difference between “actively v/s passively managed income funds”.
Passively-managed income funds, by definition, mirror the benchmark index whereas actively-managed funds aim at outperforming the index. Those fund managers who have actively or dynamically managed their funds well have been able to outperform the benchmark considerably.
The case for investing in income funds is stronger at this time since the 10-year government bond yields have not fallen in line with a sharp decline in short-term rates. The spread between yields on 91-day Treasury bills and 10-year GoI bonds has gone up from 60 basis points to 290 basis points and that on the 364-day Treasury bills has gone up from 40 basis points to 250 basis points over the one-year period ending April 29, 2009.
This disconnect is due to the overhang of government borrowing programme for FY09-10, which is high considering the high fiscal deficit. The market is looking for more reassurance on factors such as how RBI is managing the borrowing process for the government — whether there are any policy decisions by the new government relating to disinvestments and so on that can reduce this high deficit.
There is a good possibility that the current spreads between short-term yields and 10-year yields could contract as a result of a fall in the latter. However, over a medium-term, the policies of the new government will determine the bond yields.
A key differentiator between gilt funds and income funds is that the latter maintain an appropriate blend of corporate credits and government securities. This blend provides the benefit of diversification, particularly when the credit spreads are contracting.
Over the past one year, the credit spread between 10-year AAA-rated credit and 10-year GoI bond went up from 200 basis points to almost 400 in October 2008 and has come back to 200 at the end of April 2009 (Source: Bloomberg). The concerns on many AAA credits have abated and it is likely that this spread will come down further. It should be noted that the credit spread had gone to as low as 25-30 bps in mid-2005 when the credit appetite was at its best.
Investors who invest in carefully-selected dynamically-managed income funds should aim at taking advantage of an attractive risk premium offered by such funds when compared to bank fixed deposits /liquid funds. Investors must take the help of investment advisors in selecting appropriate dynamic income funds and each investment decision must follow an assessment of the individual’s risk profile.
By Nikhil Johri of The Economic Times